2026 Utah Housing Market Outlook

Predicting what will happen in the Utah real estate market is similar to forecasting the weather. Analyzing data, studying trends, and incorporating expert insights form a fairly clear picture of what could happen, but there will always be unseen variables that influence the final outcome. As the new year begins, the prevailing theme for Utah real estate in 2026 will be stabilization rather than dramatic change.

Home Prices: A Market Reset

After years of extreme swings, most housing economists agree that 2026 will feel like a “reset” year. Nationally, home prices are projected to rise modestly, about 1–2% overall, with hotter, high-demand markets seeing gains closer to 2–4%. Importantly, this outlook does not suggest a market crash or a rapid surge in prices.

Utah, while still benefiting from strong long-term fundamentals like job growth, lifestyle appeal, and population growth, is no longer experiencing the frantic price acceleration seen earlier during the pandemic years. Instead, price growth is expected to remain steady and measured. This moderation should be welcome news for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, as well as for sellers who value market stability over volatility.

Mortgage Rates: Gradual Relief for Buyers

Mortgage rates remain one of the most influential factors shaping buyer behavior. While individual rates vary based on credit score, down payment, loan type, debt-to-income ratio, and other variables, the broader trend has been encouraging. Over the past six months, rates have slowly declined from the mid-to-upper 6% range into the low 6% and even high 5% range.

Looking ahead, conservative forecasts suggest the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will hover around 6.2–6.4% throughout 2026, while more optimistic projections put rates closer to 5.9–6.1%. While a return to sub-5% rates appears unlikely this year, the gradual decline offers meaningful relief for buyers.

As rates have eased, our team has already seen increased buyer interest and activity. If rates continue their slow downward trend without sudden economic disruptions, the market should start to pick up without losing the growing stability.

One notable variable on the horizon is the potential change in the Federal Reserve. President Trump is expected to appoint a new Fed Chair in early 2026, which could influence future monetary policy and interest rate direction. While any immediate impact is uncertain, leadership changes always introduce a degree of unpredictability.

Inventory: Moving Toward Balance

Inventory levels across Utah are rising, nudging the market closer to the balanced conditions seen before the pandemic. New construction has provided some housing shortage relief, giving buyers more choices and more negotiating power—something that has been largely absent over the past five to six years.

This shift marks a significant change from the extreme seller’s markets and abrupt corrections Utah has experienced in recent years. A more balanced inventory environment benefits both sides, allowing transactions to happen with greater confidence and less pressure.

Utah Trends: Experience Matters

While Utah often outperforms national averages, 2026 is shaping up to be a year where local trends align more closely with the broader U.S. housing market. Steady growth and stability will benefit both buyers and sellers, as long as they are educated about the trends happening in their specific area. 

A few trends already taking shape in Utah are worth watching. Home condition matters more than ever, with move-in-ready homes standing out to today’s buyers. New construction is also gaining traction, as builder incentives can sometimes lead to lower monthly payments than with comparable existing homes. Even with economic challenges, first-time buyers are still finding ways to enter the market through creative financing and assistance programs.

If you’re thinking about making a move in 2026, the most helpful information is often specific to your situation. Affordability, timing, and opportunity can vary widely depending on your goals and location. Taking time to understand what you can afford, what your current home may be worth, or what options exist for buying your first home can help you move forward with clarity and confidence, whether you’re ready now or simply planning ahead.